Current Project Pipeline in Wind Projects in Türkiye

After 2020 and 2021, which were intense years for the commissioning of new wind projects, the Turkish Wind Energy Sector completed 2023 with a performance below the average of recent years with approximately 540 MW of installation. In order to shed light on wind power plant installation forecasts in the coming years, we tried to analyze the current project pipeline in wind projects in Turkey as of July 2024 in this issue of Rüzgar Enerjisi Dergisi.

This analysis was made based on EMRA’s current data on the EMRA website as of July 2024 and TÜREB Turkey Wind Energy Statistical Report January 2024 data.

Annual Installation of Wind Power Plants in Türkiye (TÜREB) 

Project Pipeline coming from Licensed  Projects

There are currently 301 licensed wind power plant projects in Türkiye. While 25 of these licensed projects are new/greenfield projects that have not yet been put into operation, the remaining 276 wind projects are projects that have been partially or fully commissioned or have received a capacity increase. The installed power analysis of all licensed wind projects across Türkiye is given in the table below.  According to this table, as of July 2024, approximately 3 GW of licensed wind capacity has been licensed but has not yet been put into operation.

A project-based review of this project stock of approximately 2.96 GW, belonging to 152 licensed wind projects that are not yet in operation/partially in operation, is made in the table below. As seen in this table, a significant portion of the uncommissioned capacity, up to 2.3 GW, is in projects with Capacity Extensions or Partial Acceptance.  Since the energy transmission line, switchgear and other infrastructures of these projects, which are currently in operation, are already in place, this capacity of 2.3 GW constitutes the project stock that will turn into investment most quickly.

When the distribution of this project stock on a provincial basis is examined, Çanakkale, Istanbul and Kırklareli provinces will be our top three provinces for the installation of new wind turbines in the near future, and approximately 25% of the project pipeline is concentrated in these three provinces. In the table below, 20 provinces that are likely to increase wind capacity in the near future are shared. A total of 2.1 GW of new wind capacity can be expected to be installed in these 20 provinces.

Project Pipeline coming from PreLicenced Projects

We can group pre-licenced wind projects into two different groups: Storage and Non-Storage projects.

Non-Storage Wind Projects are comprised of projects that were entitled to a pre-license before Wind Projects with Storage application, and mostly developed by investors as a result of YEKA 1, 2 and 3 tenders. In this category, a total of 60 different wind projects constitute a project stock of 4.1 GW.

In Wind Projects with Storage, there is a total project pipeline of approximately 19 GW with approximately 263 Projects.

The below table shows tenders or periods of pre licenced wind projects (Non Storage) without storage obligation. Here, the projects which are coming from tenders / applications made in 2017 and before, have the highest share both in the number of projects and in terms of installed capacity.

Current Project Pipeline in Wind Projects in Türkiye and Evaluations

If we bring together all the projects at the licence and pre-license stages, a total of 475 different projects and a project pipeline of 26 GW  wind projects will be available for the wind industry in Türkiye.

• In the light of this analysis, the following evaluations can be made about the current project pipeline in wind projects in Turkey;
• Since Wind Projects with Storage are still in the development phase, the realization of approximately 19 GW of project pipeline coming from these projects can be predicted to be in 2027 and beyond, considering all permit processes and turbine supply processes.
• Project Pipeline of 7.1 GW comins from Licensed and Pre-License Wind (Non-Storage Projects) Projects can be considered as the projects whihc are closest to the investment and can be operational in 2024, 2025 and 2026. However, Considering the delays in YEKA 1 Projects, the future project pipeline coming from this category can be considered as 6.1 GW.
• According to TÜREB’s Türkiye Wind Energy January 2024 Statistical Report, Türkiye’s operational wind installed power is 12,482 MWm and the projects under construction is 3,148 MWm.
• According to EMRA’s July 2024 data, the operational wind capacity in Turkey is 12,766 MWm.
• When we combine these two data, approximately 284 MWm of power has been put into operation in the first six months of 2024, and the current installed power under construction can be considered as 2,864 MWm.
• When the 2.86 GW under construction capacity is subtracted from the 6.1 GW Project Pipeline coming from Licensed and Pre-License Wind (Non-Storage Projects) Projects, 3.24 GW Project Pipeline has not yet reached the investment stage.
• A significant portion of the 3.24 GW Project Pipeline that has not reached the investment phase can be expected to be converted into investment within the next 6 to 12 months.
• Although there is serious activity in unlicensed wind projects, most of the projects have low capacities. Many of the projects in this area are at the project development stage, and the annual contribution to new wind installations can be expected to be in the range of 50 to 100 MW.
• In the light of these evaluations, it can be predicted that new wind installations in 2024 will approach 1,000 MW, and new installations in 2025 and 2026 will be in the range of 1,000 to 1,500 MW.

Habib Babacan

Habib Babacan has been working professionally in the Turkish Wind Energy sector since 2008. He  continues to provide consultancy services, with his own initiative, Mature Capital, to investors in the fields of Business Development, Project Development, Strategy Formulation and M&A of Projects in the wind business. 

More information about Mature Capital, which focuses on Mergers and Acquisitions of Wind Projects (M&A), is available through the links below.