Sector News
It’s the No. 1 Power Source, but Natural Gas Faces Headwinds
As environmental concerns drive power companies away from using coal, natural gas has emerged as the nation’s No. 1 power source. Plentiful and relatively inexpensive as a result of the nation’s fracking boom, it has been portrayed as a bridge to an era in which alternative energy would take primacy.
But technology and economics have carved a different, shorter pathway that has bypassed the broad need for some fossil-fuel plants. And that has put proponents of natural gas on the defensive.
Some utility companies have scrapped plans for new natural-gas plants in favor of wind and solar sources that have become cheaper and easier to install. Existing gas plants are being shut because their economics are no longer attractive. And regulators are increasingly challenging the plans of companies determined to move forward with new natural-gas plants.
“It’s a very different world that we’re arriving at very quickly,” said Robert McCullough, an energy consultant in Portland, Ore. “That wind farm can literally be put on a train and brought online within a year. It is moving so fast that even critics of the old path like myself have been taken by surprise.”
The shifting dynamics are being seen in the Western states in particular — driven not only by economics, but by regulation and climate as well.
The Arizona Corporation Commission, which regulates the state’s investor-owned utilities, recently refused to endorse plans by three power companies that included more natural-gas facilities. Commissioners directed them to make greater use of energy storage and plants that produce zero emissions.
“It’s very erratic what we’re now doing with power,” said Andrew M. Tobin, an Arizona commissioner who led efforts to block new gas plants. “I am so nervous that we will end up building a lot of capital plant that doesn’t stand the test of time.”
Some feel the push to get beyond natural gas may be too much, too soon. Officials at Arizona Public Service, the largest utility in the state, said they needed to include new natural-gas development as part of an overall mix, partly because of the state’s round-the-clock air-conditioning demands.
“Our needs are different than other utilities,” said Greg Bernosky, the utility’s director of state regulation and compliance. “We need resources that can have a long duration when our load is high, well after the sun has set. Natural gas resources provide that flexibility.”
Nationwide, other utility executives, power producers and federal regulators have also argued that a healthy power grid requires consistent power, even when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind ceases to blow. The more solar and wind power that is added to the electric grid, they say, the greater the need for reliable backup sources like natural gas.
“Gas has got to be part of that equation,” Robert F. Powelson, a commissioner on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, recently told an energy conference. “The gas system has gotten extremely reliable.”
And he argued that even recent advances in storage did not justify an overreliance on alternative energy, however inexpensive. “Storage is great,” said Mr. Powelson, a nominee of President Trump and a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. “But that is not a reliable long-term solution to the energy markets.”
Natural gas isn’t likely to be unseated as the country’s primary source of electricity generation anytime soon. In fact, utility companies plan to add more natural-gas plants than any other source, including all alternative energy sources, like solar, wind and hydropower, combined.
But the calculus is rapidly shifting as the prices of wind and solar power continue to fall. According to the Department of Energy, power generated by natural gas declined 7.7 percent in 2017.
And the latest report by Lazard, the financial advisory and management firm, found that the cost of power from utility-scale solar farms was now on a par with natural-gas generation — and that wind farms were less expensive still.
Lazard calculated the unsubsidized cost of wind power at 3 cents a kilowatt-hour, while natural gas and solar energy were a little more than 4 cents. The typical American household pays 12.5 cents a kilowatt-hour for electricity, according to the United States Energy Information Administration. (The cost beyond generation reflects transmission, taxes, and other utility expenses and profits.)
Moreover, the market equation in the West is driven largely by California, the sixth-largest economy in the world, which has mandated that 50 percent of its power be generated from renewable sources by 2030. With a regional energy market run by the state’s electricity grid overseer, the California Independent System Operator, fossil-fuel plants have had increasing difficulty selling their power into a market with low-cost solar and wind power.
At the same time, state legislatures and regulators are increasingly demanding that utilities rethink how they manage their systems to reduce carbon emissions.
Some power producers have bristled at the mandates, even scaling back their operations in certain markets because, they said, it became too difficult to compete without losing money.
NRG Energy, for example, announced this month that it would close three natural-gas plants in California because of the regulatory push for clean energy.
After NRG’s announcement, Calpine, a power company based in Houston, said it would suspend plans to build a natural-gas plant in California.
“We cannot invest a single dollar in California,” Thad Hill, Calpine’s chief executive, said. “I would not call California a true competitive market.”
But a big Oregon utility, Portland General Electric, has embraced clean-energy mandates to ease it off dependence on fossil fuels.
“First off for us, climate change is real and we have to diversify our mix,” Dave Robertson, the company’s vice president for public policy. “We’re driving more and more toward a decarbonized future. We really feel like we’ve got to own that. It’s really where the science is taking us.”
This month, Portland General entered into an agreement to buy surplus hydropower from the Bonneville Power Administration — the surplus arises largely from California’s turn to other renewable sources — helping the utility avoid construction of natural-gas plants to replace a coal facility.
“There are surpluses of energy that are looking for markets,” said Brett Sims, Portland General’s director of strategic planning and resource strategy.
Portland General’s view offered a hopeful message to environmentalists, who pushed for the weaning off coal and now have done much the same with natural gas.
“It feels like déjà vu all over again for the electric sector,” Mike Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club, said. “Utilities began to find that coal was not just a dirty form of energy but a more expensive form of energy, so they began to replace coal. Now, as they’re looking to replace coal, they’re finding gas in the same situation. There’s a broad trend across the energy sector, mostly in the West, where coal and natural gas can’t compete.”
Mr. McCullough, the Portland energy economist and principal at McCullough Research, said that the rapid change had caught many in the industry by surprise and that it could lead to a shorter future for natural gas.
“I think the fact of the matter is we’re seeing a lot of people realizing that there are different ways to go,” Mr. McCullough said.
Sector News
Large construction site for the energy transition: RWE modernises two wind farms and increases power generation
Ground frost, gusts of wind, cold – the RWE team braved the adverse conditions. Over the next few weeks, a total of around 100 employees and experts from RWE and its partner companies will be working on two wind farms to dismantle 17 older wind turbines and replace them with 11 new, more powerful ones. By repowering the wind farms in this way, RWE can significantly increase electricity production despite using fewer turbines. This is due to the larger rotor blades being able to capture more wind and produce green electricity even when the wind is weak. At the Lesse and Barbecke sites, the company will increase capacity from 30.6 to 61.8 megawatts (MW).
Katja Wünschel, CEO RWE Renewables Europe & Australia: “43,500 is the number of the day. Once operational, the wind farms will be able to supply the equivalent of 43,500 households with green electricity. Electricity production at both sites will more than triple. Repowering is therefore making an important contribution to the success of the energy transition. But it is not only the climate that benefits, since we voluntarily pay an RWE climate bonus of 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour produced to the local communities. The town of Salzgitter and the municipalities of Lengede, Burgdorf and Söhlde can look forward to a total annual income of up to €280,000, which will be distributed among the municipalities.”
RWE opts for established wind sites in Lesse and Barbecke
The local conditions make the area suitable for wind power, with sufficient distance from the nearest villages and good wind conditions. In Lesse, RWE will replace eleven turbines of the oldest generation (total capacity 19.8 MW) with eight modern turbines with a total capacity of 44.7 MW.
In Barbecke, RWE will replace six existing turbines (total capacity 10.8 MW) with three turbines with an installed capacity of 5.7 MW each (total capacity 17.1 MW). The team has started to set up the construction site and carry out initial road works.
Any repowering project is a logistical challenge. In parallel with the new construction, the old turbines need to remain connected to the grid for as long as possible in order to continue generating green electricity.
Jens Meyer, Project manager at RWE: “We really have our hands full. While we have already laid the first foundation with a diameter of more than 26 metres for the new wind farm in Lesse, we were able to start dismantling the old plant at the same time. We are doing this in the most environmentally-friendly and resource-efficient way possible. We are leaving areas that are no longer required in such a way that they can be used without restriction after dismantling. We also reuse some of the gravel removed from roads and crane pads in the new wind farm.”
How communities benefit from wind power
RWE operates around 90 onshore wind farms in its home market. Involving citizens and local authorities in renewable energy projects is a key element in driving forward the energy transition. It promotes local acceptance. In Germany, the company gives all municipalities with an RWE wind farm a share of the profits. As the RWE climate bonus is paid per kilowatt hour of electricity generated, communities where high-capacity plants are based benefit the most. This creates an additional incentive to replace older plants with modern ones. In Lesse and Barbecke, electricity production will more than triple after repowering. Municipalities can expect to receive up to €280,000 per year of wind farm operation, up from up to €80,000. The additional income can be used, for example, to financially support local facilities such as day-care centres for children, schools and fire brigades. RWE plans to commission all new plants this coming winter.
Sector News
The EU built a record 17 GW of new wind energy in 2023 – wind now 19% of electricity production
The EU built 17 GW of new wind energy in 2023, slightly up on 2022 – and more than ever in a single year in fact. But it’s not enough to reach the EU’s 2030 targets. The EU should be building 30 GW of new wind every year between now and 2030. The actions set out in the EU Wind Power Package and European Wind Charter will help increase the annual build-out – national implementation is key. Wind was 19% of all electricity produced in Europe’s last year.
According to WindEurope data, the EU built 17 GW of new wind farms in 2023: 14 GW onshore; 3 GW offshore. These numbers are slightly up on 2022 and are the most the EU has ever built in a single year. But it’s well below the 30 GW a year that the EU needs to build to meet its new 2030 climate and energy security targets.
Germany built the most new wind capacity followed by the Netherlands and Sweden. The Netherlands built the most new offshore wind, including the 1.5 GW “Hollandse Kust Zuid” – for now the world’s largest wind farm.
The IEA estimates that Europe will build 23 GW a year of new wind over 2024-28. The actions set out in the EU Wind Power Package should deliver a significant increase in the annual build-out – and strengthen Europe’s wind energy supply chain. National implementation of the actions is key.
To that end the commitment to deliver the Wind Power Package that 26 EU Energy Ministers signed before Christmas in the European Wind Charter was key. Crucial actions include the further simplification of permitting, improvements in the design of the auctions to build new wind farms and public financial support for wind turbine manufacturing and key infrastructure.
Wind was 19% of the electricity produced in the EU last year. Hydro was 13%, solar 8% and biomass 3%. Renewables in total amounted to 44% of electricity produced.
The amount of electricity produced from 1 GW of wind continued to grow. The “capacity factor” of new onshore wind farms now ranges from 30-48%, and new offshore wind is consistently 50%. The capacity factor measures how much output you get from a unit of capacity – it varies between different renewable technologies.
Sector News
A Race to the Top China 2023: China’s quest for energy security drives wind and solar development
China is on track to double its utility-scale solar and wind power capacity and shatter the central government’s ambitious 2030 target of 1,200 gigawatts (GW) five years ahead of schedule, if all prospective projects are successfully built and commissioned, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
China on track to exceed 2030 wind & solar target
With 757 GW of already operating wind and solar, and an additional 750 GW of prospective wind and solar, the majority of which expected to come online by 2025, the central government’s 2030 target is expected to be met 5 years ahead of schedule.
The Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers identify prospective projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases totalling approximately 379 GW of large utility-scale solar and 371 GW of wind capacity, which is roughly equal to China’s current installed operating capacity.
Nearly all of this prospective capacity is part of the government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and enough to increase the global wind fleet by nearly half and large utility-scale solar installations by over 85%. This amount of prospective solar capacity is triple that of the United States, and accompanied by China’s significant share of approximately one-fifth of the global prospective wind capacity.
The Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers also show:
. China’s operating large utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228 GW – more than the rest of the world combined.
. China’s combined onshore and offshore wind capacity has doubled from what it was in 2017 and now surpasses 310 GW.
. Operating offshore wind capacity has reached 31.4 GW, and accounts for approximately 10% of China’s total wind capacity and exceeds the operating offshore capacity of all of Europe
“This new data provides unrivaled granularity about China’s jaw-dropping surge in solar and wind capacity. As we closely monitor the implementation of prospective projects, this detailed information becomes indispensable in navigating the country’s energy landscape.” Dorothy Mei, Project Manager at Global Energy Monitor
“China is making strides, but with coal still holding sway as the dominant power source, the country needs bolder advancements in energy storage and green technologies for a secure energy future.” Martin Weil, Researcher at Global Energy Monitor
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