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Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy will save West African countries hundreds of millions of dollars by the end of decade, says Wärtsilä

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Speaking last week at the West Africa Energy Transition Forum in Dakar in the presence of key energy decision-makers, experts from Wärtsilä shared insights on the impact renewables will have on power system cost, flexibility, and stability in West Africa. They presented the results of their latest study which investigates Senegal’s optimal power system expansion. The study revealed that speeding up the deployment of renewable energy beyond what is currently planned will lead to a staggering $700 Millions of savings until 2035, primarily because of the massive decrease in fuel costs that it will generate. Significant cost savings are also expected in other West African countries that choose to focus investment on renewables, supported by flexible power generation.

Using state-of-the-art power system modelling techniques, Wärtsilä helps energy authorities from around the world to identify and shape optimal energy strategies. The company has acquired considerable experience of African energy markets through the delivery over 200 power plants in 46 African countries, for a total of 7.6 GW of capacity.

“We held this forum to address pressing questions facing energy authorities in Senegal, Guinea, or Mauritania today, starting with the relative share that renewable energy should have in their power mix. How much renewable energy should they build, how fast and at what cost? How much flexible power capacity will be needed to ensure grid stability while accommodating an increasing amount of intermittent renewable power? Answering these questions is crucial to informing their energy strategies going forward.”, explained Marc Thiriet, Director, Africa, Wärtsilä Energy.

Senegal’s power expansion plans: a case in point

Wärtsilä presented the findings of a study that assesses the financial and environmental impacts of different renewable energy deployment levels on Senegal’s power system. Senegal’s current plan was compared to a “High Renewables” plan involving the addition of some 2,100 MW of renewables by 2035. Both situations have been modelled in detail with the powerful Plexos software to identify the most optimal power mix for each scenario and compare total system costs. 

The study reveals that the scenario featuring a greater deployment of renewable energy in the power system will, by far, be the most affordable and sustainable option. Paired with energy storage and flexible engine power plants to maintain a constant and stable power supply, a larger share of renewable energy will reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 and generate total system savings of $700 million dollars by 2035. The fuel savings are the main factor in reducing the total cost of the system since renewable energy will partially remove the need to be operate thermal power plants at full load to satisfy demand.

“Our study shows very clearly that maximising low-cost renewable energy is in Senegal’s best interest, both economically and environmentally. We would almost certainly reach the same results, albeit of varying scales, if we were to analyse Guinea, Ivory Coast, or Mauritania’s power systems in similar depth.”, said Kenneth Engblom, Vice President, Africa § Europe, Wärtsilä Energy.

“Price alone is converting the world to renewable energy”, continued Joonatan Huhdanmäki, Market Development Manager at Wärtsilä. “In 2022, solar power was already the most competitive source of new power generation in most countries of the world, including in Africa. This is a global trend that will continue to accelerate. According to IEA, in order to reach net-zero by 2050 the share of renewable energy should reach 61% by 2030 and a staggering 84% by 2040.”

Understanding the balancing needs of high renewable power grids

Balancing power refers to the ability of a power system to maintain a stable and reliable supply of electricity, by matching the electricity demand with the available generation capacity in real-time. 

Because renewable energy is intermittent, extra balancing capacity is needed to provide enough flexibility to the power system and ensure grid stability. “The equation for grid stability is rather simple to understand. Every megawatt of intermittent renewable capacity that is installed must be matched with corresponding levels of flexibility in the form of energy storage and balancing power plants, so that we can always match electricity supply and demand.”, explained Kenneth Engblom.

To balance the grid, operators will use two complementary technologies:  Flexible engine power plants, which can be quickly ramped up or down to respond to changes in electricity supply, will be used whenever renewable capacity is insufficient to meet demand. Energy storage systems, on the other hand, will store the excess electricity when renewable generation exceeds demand. Both will work together to keep the grid safe and stable. 

The path to carbon-free power systems in West Africa

The path to decarbonisation of the energy system is rather similar everywhere in the world. The first step is to add the right mix of renewables, balancing power plants, and storage capacity, while phasing out inflexible power plants. The second step is to convert the flexible engine power plants running on natural gas to run on sustainable fuels, at which stage the power system will no longer need fossil fuels at all.

“Decarbonisation is totally feasible with the current technologies we have, and contrary to popular belief, it’s not going to cost more: it’s going to cost less.”, concluded Marc Thiriet. “We have got wind, and solar technologies. We have storage technologies and flexible engine power plants for grid balancing. And we have sustainable fuels that we will use to run the balancing power plants when these fuels become more broadly available.” 

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Global climate targets under threat without a secure wind energy supply chain

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New report outlines route for global supply chain resilience and growth, based on industry and government cooperation

Bottlenecks in the global wind industry supply chain could leave the world with only three-quarters of the wind energy installations needed for a 1.5°C pathway by 2030, i.e. a 650 GW gap to meet climate targets. The supply chains in the wind sector for minerals, components and key enabling infrastructure like ports and platforms are not fit-for-purpose for a net zero world, where today’s global installed wind fleet must scale up by roughly three times by the end of the decade.

Solutions exist, but require stronger collaboration between government and industry, as well as among supply chain actors themselves, according to a new report “Mission Critical: Building the global wind energy supply chain for a 1.5°C world” from the Global Wind Energy Council, in partnership with Boston Consulting Group. The report assesses the implications for energy transition policy across four future macroeconomic scenarios by 2030, and how broader global developments like rising inflation and open-door trade versus increased trade barriers will impact the wind supply chain landscape, market size and sustainability of industry returns.

The first-of-its-kind comprehensive analysis across key components and materials in the sector finds that the wind supply chain is highly globalised, with a strong focus in China for rare earth element refining and component manufacturing in particular. A resetting of political priorities towards industrial resilience and security in many areas of the world, including Europe and the US, in addition to increasing market volatility, poses risks for creating a competitive and sufficiently scaledup global supply chain. Policy and regulatory issues around permitting, grids, investment certainty and localisation are also holding back volume in the wind pipeline, which could otherwise send positive demand signals for supply chains to scale.

“This is a watershed moment for getting trade and industrial policy in shape for a 1.5°C world. Wind energy will form the backbone of the future energy system based on renewables, but in order to enable a tripling of the world’s wind installations by 2030 we require a globalised, secure and competitive supply chain.Governments must work with the industry and the industry must work together to ensure the sector meets the enormous demand for clean and secure energy within this decade. Investment in supply chains has seen setbacks in many regions of the world, largely caused by challenges in policy, regulation and market design while industry itself needs to step up to the climate emergency by embracing standardisation with more global and modular technology design. Everyone has a role to play in this mission to create stronger and more resilient supply chains for the energy transition.”

Ben Backwell, Global Wind Energy Council CEO

“The wind industry manufacturing footprint must be able to do two very different things at the same time, deliver on the projected industry output (ramping up to 190 GW in 2030) and prepare to support the 1.5° transition which would require 70% more capacity (320 GW in 2030).”

Lars Holm, Partner and Director at BCG’s Centre for Energy Impact

The report explores the impact of four different macroeconomic scenarios, and how the wind industry can best navigate uncertainty and change in the global market. An ‘Open Door’ approach would yield the highest net positive impact in wind growth to reach climate goals, but the report anticipates the ‘Increased Barriers’ scenario as the most likely to materialise in this decade.

1)An Open Door scenario with growing regional collaboration on both supply and demand.

2)An Increased Barriers scenario where mar- kets increase trade barriers and turn attention towards domestic investment.

3)Economic Downturn where investments dry up and attention focuses towards low- cost rather than low-emission technology.

4)Global Escalation where increasing cross-border conflict reduces trade and shifts energy focus from decarbonisation towards availability.

The report outlines six key action areas that would set the conditions for large-scale wind supply chain growth and security:

  • Address basic barriers to wind industry growth in land, grids and permitting to increase volume and predictability
  • The wind industry must standardise and industrialise
  • Regionalisation will be needed to support growth and resilience, while maintaining a globalised supply chain
  • The market must provide clear and bankable demand signals
  • Trade policy should aim to build competitive industries, not push higher costs onto end users
  • Fundamental reform of the power market reform underpins further wind growth

Through a coordinated global effort from industry and policymakers, challenges in the global wind supply chain can be resolved over the course of this decade. Actions taken now in these six areas will help to foster a highly resilient and cost-efficient wind industry to decarbonise the world.

About GWEC

GWEC is a member-based organisation that represents the entire wind energy sector. The members of GWEC represent over 1,500 companies, organisations and institutions in more than 80 countries, including manufacturers, developers, component suppliers, research institutes, national wind and renewables associations, electricity providers, finance and insurance companies.

Find us at: https://gwec.net/

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TotalEnergies Awarded a 20-year Contract to Supply 1.3 GW+ of Renewable Electricity to New Jersey

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TotalEnergies and its partner Corio Generation (Corio) announce that the State of New Jersey selected their Attentive Energy Two offshore wind project for a 20-year contract to supply 1.34 GW of renewable electricity to the state. The project will deliver renewable power to over 650,000 homes.

Attentive Energy Two, a joint venture between TotalEnergies (70%) and Corio (30%), received the award in the State’s third competitive OREC (Offshore Renewable Energy Credits) solicitation, organized by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (NJBPU). The development of the project is expected to provide up to $105 million in community investments across the state, and the partners are aiming for commissioning in 2031.

The profitability of the project is ensured by the guaranteed level of OREC revenue, with a first year set price of $131 per MWh after the start of commercial operations, inflated yearly by 3%, and the benefit of a 30% IRA tax credit. The contract awarded by the NJBPU also includes a one-time inflation adjustment mechanism to compensate for changes in construction costs environment until the final investment decision.

“We are honored that the State of New Jersey chose Attentive Energy Two to deliver reliable green electricity to New Jersey residents while contributing to the local economy and offshore wind supply chain. This is another success for us in the US electricity business, following the provisional award in October 2023 of a 25-year supply contract by the State of New York to our Attentive Energy One project,” said Vincent Stoquart, Senior Vice President Renewables at TotalEnergies. “Both Attentive Energy One and Two will support our operations in the attractive US power market, where we are developing a portfolio of more than 25 GW of flexible and renewable projects. They will also help us achieve our profitability target for this business segment of 12% ROACE by 2028, as well as our ambition of delivering more than 100 TWh of power generation by 2030.”

“The award of this long-term contract is a great achievement for Attentive Energy and great news for the people of New Jersey,” said Jonathan Cole, CEO of Corio Generation. “The Attentive Energy Two project will deliver clean, green energy to hundreds of thousands of New Jersey residents and stimulate billions of dollars of regional investment.”

In February 2022, TotalEnergies secured maritime lease OCS-A 0538 at the New York Bight auction. It then partnered with New York-based electricity producer Rise and global offshore wind developer Corio to join forces in the development of the Attentive Energy offshore wind projects. In addition to the Attentive Energy Two project in New Jersey, the lease’s 3 GW capacity will serve the Attentive Energy One project in New York, which was provisionally awarded a 25-year contract to supply 1.4 GW of renewable electricity to New York in October 2023. These two projects aim to provide green electricity to more than a million homes across both states.

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All the Pretty Workhorses: Giant Wind Farm Comes to New Mexico, Featuring GE Vernova’s 3.6-154 Turbines

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Getting renewable electricity to big population centers is a growing challenge in the United States, but in the high desert of central New Mexico a plan is coming together. There, near the tiny town of Corona, GE Vernova will deploy 674 of its new “workhorse” 3.6-154 wind turbines* for the SunZia project and its developer, Pattern Energy. When completed in 2026, this colossus of a project will weigh in at a total 3,500 MW, making it the largest wind farm — and in fact the largest renewables project — in the Western Hemi- sphere, providing enough power for some 3 million people.

Spread out over a million acres, SunZia’s ambitious scope has been compared to the Hoover Dam. But it has a leg up on that landmark project: Back in the 1930s, the U.S. didn’t have access to the fast transmission technology available today. SunZia will send its wind-generated electricity through high-voltage direct current cable (HVDC) to Phoenix, where the power can be sent on ward to markets in Arizona and California. “This is just the kind of project,” says Steve Swift, chief commercial officer at GE Vernova’s Onshore Wind business, “needed to really decarbonize the U.S. and stay on the path to climate goals.”

To bring a project like this to fruition requires complex coordination. One of the biggest challenges in the burgeoning renewables space is the supply chain. Manufactured parts and materials like steel have to converge at the right points, at the right time, and must fit onto trains or ships. If you build your components so that they fit nicely with standard construction equipment, you’ll reach the finish line much faster. GE Vernova, which is providing 74% of the turbine capacity of Sun- Zia, has contracted to manufacture some of the turbine towers in Belen, New Mexico, near the project site, saving time and costs. (Facilities in Pueblo, Colorado, and Amarillo, Texas, will also manufacture towers.) The hubs that enable the turbine blades to spin, as well as the big rectangular box that holds the electronics, gears, and motor, known as the nacelle, will be manufactured by GE Vernova in Pensacola, Florida.

Putting it all together in a sparsely populated part of New Mexico is not easy, but the reduced complexity of the workhorse turbine makes the project and logistics execution much simpler. Not nearly as large as an offshore giant like GE Vernova’s 14-MW Haliade-X, the 3.6-154 turbine possesses what Kevin Siwik, director of North American sales at GE Vernova Onshore Wind, calls an efficient “logistics and construction envelope.”

This is a machine that can be delivered and installed at rapid scale compared with much larger machines, where you might trade logistics and construction efficiencies for larger nameplates — i.e., higher maximum outputs — “but won’t install at the same pace,” he says. “So this really is intended to be logistically friendly, in a quick time frame.” Siwik points out, for example, that the fleet of commercially available construction cranes in the region are the right fit for GE Vernova’s more compact workhorse, and wouldn’t be able to handle larger turbines. And as with any construction project, time is money: The faster the turbines are erected, the faster the return on investment.

Modeling the Landscape

SunZia is spread out over a million acres, on a rectangle of land roughly 80 by 30 miles, with GE’s turbine array covering a 45-by-25- mile portion of the whole. According to Matt Lynch, commercial director for North America at GE Vernova Onshore Wind, the site itself is challenging, because at that scale you have a lot of variance in topography. Computer modeling is used to find exactly the right spot for each of GE Vernova’s 674 turbines. “From the engineering perspective, having one single product fitting all those locations is a challenge,” says Soner Ozkan, senior account manager for Pattern Energy at GE Vernova Onshore Wind. Moreover, to send renewable electricity over the highlyefficient HVDC cable, which prevents the kind of line losses typical of older wires, the new wind power will have to be converted to direct current (DC) on-site before being converted back to alternating current (AC) in Phoenix.

That’s where another wing of GE Vernova steps in: Financial Services and Consulting Services. Regarding Consulting Services’ support, Ozkan says, “They have all the PhDs and the modeling capabilities. And we have weekly discussions with them.” While Hitachi Energy is handling the HVDC part of the construction project, Ozkan, Siwik, and Lynch stress that ongoing cooperation is needed to make sure all the technology works together.

GE Vernova’s services are integrated into the product development cycle, and for SunZia this meant providing customized software to the turbines, enabling them to work more efficiently with the long distance HVDC line. In a region known for lightning strikes, for example, turbines and the mini grid in which they’re nested are vulnerable to power spikes. But the system is designed to be able to respond to those surges within 50 milliseconds, ensuring that equipment is protected.

In addition, Financial Services assisted SunZia in reaching financial close with a sizable commitment to finance the monetization of future tax credits. In this way, GE Vernova offers a unique set of full-stack solutions, from modeling to financing, differentiating it from competitors that are unable to offer the same type of one-stop-shop approach.

Lynch says that sequencing a mega-project like SunZia is also crucial so that each completion goal is reached at the right time, in the right order: “What’s the best execution plan? What’s the best project cycle — not trying to make too aggressive a schedule, where neither party would succeed? What are the milestones? What’s the commercial operation date?”

Just one of the major tasks that needs to be addressed at a project like SunZia is establishing road access, a delicate operation required not only for building a pad for each turbine but for maintenance later on. The developer, Pattern Energy, has worked closely with the National Audubon Society to address the multiple environmental challenges involved in building such a big infrastructure project on healthy rangeland, as well as the impact of the route taken by its 550-mile transmission line across two states.

This is not the first time Pattern Energy and GE Vernova have danced together in the desert. The collaboration on SunZia grew out of the very successful 1,050-MW Western Spirit wind project, a nearby series of four clusters that is now operational after completion early last year. Western Spirit itself was a break- through. ”That was the largest single-phase installation to happen in the United States at one time, truly ushering in a new era of large- scale projects,” Siwik says. The workhorse turbine used in much of the Western Spirit project was a 2.7-MW machine with a rotor diameter of 127 meters (416 feet). Today’s workhorse, the 3.6-154 unit for SunZia, will have a rotor diameter of 154 meters (505 feet).

“Our outstanding performance in Western Spirit is really what led us here,” says Swift. “That project was built by the same parties — built on schedule, and on budget. Some call it one of the best executions through the pandemic they’ve ever seen.” By the time SunZia is completed, the Pattern Energy and GE Vernova teams will have together delivered a whopping 4.3 gigawatts of new renewable power across the western United States. Western Spirit has historically worked with other suppliers but is increasingly turning to GE as a favored project partner.

“SunZia is an investment in America’s energy future that will pay strong dividends, including more than $20 billion in expected economic impact, over 2,000 new jobs, and clean power for 3 million Americans,” says Hunter Armistead, CEO of Pattern Energy. “SunZia demonstrates that working toward a sustainable future can also create mean- ingful economic value and a lasting positive impact on local communities. We’re proud that SunZia is the result of many years of collaboration with communities, local residents, landowners, environmental groups, and government agencies. We look forward to bringing these benefits to fruition.”

Credits Where They’re Due

Recognizing that decarbonization needs to go even faster, the U.S. government has once again stepped up its policy support. For many years, solar and wind projects have benefited from the basic production and investment tax credits, which have been extended multiple times by Congress in the past. But the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) not only provides the long-term certainty of those PTC and ITC, it also has other bonuses, and one job that GE Vernova takes on is helping developers hit the target required to qualify for those bonuses. Two in particular are in play in the SunZia project, according to Chrissy Borskey, GE Vernova’s executive director of global government affairs and policy.

First, the government identifies areas of the country that have seen job losses in mining and energy production, which makes them the perfect settings to award developer bonuses. While Borskey cautions that more clarification is needed from the U.S. Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service, much of New Mexicolies within this “energy community” designation. And there is no question that the SunZia project is expected to inject billions into the local economy and create more than 2,000 construction jobs during peak construction.

The second bonus comes through meeting the IRA’s U.S. manufacturing and sourcing rules. GE Vernova’s decision to produce nacelles and hubs in Florida while also delivering towers with U.S.made steel are aimed directly at meeting the targets required by the legislation. ”More projects similar to this can quickly move forward as the administration works diligently to finalize the rules and regulations related to the IRA,” Borskey says. While the details are still being worked out, GE Vernova is moving ahead and has invested $20 million in its Pensacola facility.

The U.S. has made great strides in decarbonizing its power grid in the past decade, shuttering coal plants and building so much new wind and solar that by the end of 2022 they accounted for nearly 15% of U.S. electricity, according to the Energy Information Administration. But to decarbonize effectively, the U.S. will need more projects of similar scale. SunZia’s size will more or less break the ceiling on large-scale projects, and should set an important precedent.

Pattern Energy and GE Vernova now seem to have optimized such projects to a fine- tuned science, or what Swift calls top-shelf “execution performance.” This bodes well for a future of further renewable energy deployment. Says Siwik, “I think that the message should come across as: If you have a large- scale single-phase project, you ought to be looking at GE Vernova technology.”

*GE’s 3.6-MW turbine with a 154-meter rotor is referred to as the 3.6-154 turbine.

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