Energy management systems

Demand/Supply – Renewable energy with guarantees of origin (GO)

Ever since 1999, energy users in Europe have demanded documentation of the origin of the electricity they use, which launched an exponential market development. 470 TWh of renewable energy with Guarantee of Origin were sold and consumed in 2017.
Over the last years, a global market for renewable energy certificates has started to develop and equal tracing mechanisms are available also outside Europe.

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5 years ago

18 December 2018

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A renewable energy certificate is an electronic document which has the sole function of providing proof to a final customer that a given quantity of energy has been produced from renewable sources. The purpose of the renewable energy certificate system is to enable energy users to choose renewable energy to cover their consumption. This active consumer choice is also meant to create an incentive to increase the production of renewable energy.

In Europe the system for renewable energy certificates is named Guarantees of Origin (GO). One GO equals 1 MWh of total renewable electricity. they regulate the system under the EU renewable energy directive (DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC) and the EU electricity market directive (DIRECTIVE 2009/72/EC).
Ever since 1999, energy users in Europe have demanded documentation of the origin of the electricity they use, which launched an exponential market development. 470 TWh of renewable energy with Guarantee of Origin were sold and consumed in 2017.
Over the last years, a global market for renewable energy certificates has started to develop and equal tracing mechanisms are available also outside Europe.

Figure 1: Consumption of renewable energy with GO 2001-2018 Q3 (TWh)

The consumption of renewable energy with GO in Europe for Q1-Q3 2018 reached a total of 446 TWh. This represents an increase of 9%, comparing to the same period last year and 47% comparing to the same period in 2016.

Figure 2: Consumption of renewable energy with GO for Q1-Q3 in Europe for the three last years (TWh)

For the last three years (2016-2018), there has been an increasing trend in the consumption of renewable energy with origin gurantee in Europe. Comparing Q1-Q3, consumption of renewable energy from wind has increased 59 TWh, hydro 42 TWh and biomass 23 TWh. For solar, the absolute change is only 16 TWh, but the relative change is very high; 524%.

Figure 3: Change in the consumption of renewable energy with GO for Q1-Q3 in Europe between 2016 and 2018 (%)

Hydropower the leader

Hydropower is the most used source in consumption of renewable energy with GO. In 2017, hydropower covered 70% of GOs. Wind power covered 20% of the consumption.

Figure4: Consumption of renewable energy with GO by source in Europe 2001-2018 (MWh)

During 2018, the production of renewable energy is low due to weather circumstances. This had a direct impact on the issuing of GOs, as the issuing relates to the actual production of renewable energy. Comparing Q1-Q3 2018 with Q1-Q3 2017 shows that hydropower and wind power together decreased by 48 TWh.

Figure 5: Production of renewable energy with GO for Q1-Q3 in Europe for the three last years (TWh)

Norway Case

Norway is the largest producer of renewable energy with GO in Europe. In 2017, Norway has 140 TWh of renewable energy with GO, mostly from hydropower. Norway alone stood for 43% of the total market supply of GOs. Renewable energy production with GO from the five largest producer countries represented 60% of the overall total in Europe. The second largest producing country is Italy. It has 71 TWh. Italy is also the country with the broadest portfolio variety.

Figure 2: The five largest producers of renewable energy, in 2017 in Europe (MWh)

Forecast

The forecast for Q4 2018 indicates a new situation in the European GO market. The full year forecast for production of GOs in 2018 is 460 TWh. There’s a reduction of 13% from 2017. Comparing with the Q3- update, the production-forecast is up by +10 TWh. The consumption forecast for 2018 show 590 TWh. There’s an an increase of 25% from 2017. Comparing with the Q3- update, forecast increased significantly with +80 TWh.

Figure 5: Consumption and production of renewable energy with GO in Europe including forecast for Q4 2018 (TWh)

The increase renewable energy consumption and the big drop in production will most probably lead to the rare case of a higher demand than supply. The market has partly discounted this situation through the price increase during 2018. But it’s the future if the market gap is fully discounted into the prices.

Figure 3: Spot price development for GOs from Nordic hydro in the wholesale market 2008-November 2018

Substantial Increase

The substantial increase in the GO prices during Q1-Q3 2018 was most probably a result of three factors. These are increase in underlying demand, production reduction of renewable energy due to low wind and sentiment trading. After a long period with increasing prices, the market corrected downwards in Q4. Improved hydro balance can partly explain the price correction. As the underlying demand is continuing to increase the bullish trend is expected to continue. At the same time there are some indications. These are the price levels are difficult to internalize for European electricity suppliers. This might reduce the possibility for a new round of rapid price increase. As per end of November, GOs produced in 2018 from Nordic hydro is traded at 1,20 €/MWh.

The future price expectations for GOs from Nordic hydropower increased along with the spot prices during 2018. 2019-prices are close to 1,70 €/MWh, and the years ahead price slightly above 2019.